Hello, Hi Visionaries!

Right, let's talk about something: are we watching the Premier League walk the same path that destroyed Serie A?

It might be dramatic? But let me cook.

In the 1990s, Serie A was the league. Zidane at Juventus. Ronaldo at Inter. Maldini marshalling Milan's defence. Italian football had the richest TV deals, the biggest stars, and a global audience that made the Premier League look like a regional competition. Then it all collapsed.

Today, the Premier League is the undisputed global champion. But beneath the lights and record-breaking rights deals, there are cracks forming. And they look eerily familiar.

Let's rewind. What actually killed Serie A's dominance?

Italian clubs were run like personal domains, family owned, politically connected, with zero collective vision. Each club negotiated its own TV rights until 2010. Imagine trying to build a global brand when your 20 constituent parts are all pulling in different directions. the answer is: you can't.

The lesson: Strong central governance isn't boring bureaucracy. It's the foundation of sustainable growth.

Nearly every major club played in municipal-owned stadiums built for Italia '90. No control over matchday revenue, no modern hospitality offerings, no fan experience worth talking about. Meanwhile, the Premier League was building Emirates Stadium and now we have Tottenham’s multi purpose stadium.

Historical precedent: This mirrors English football's pre-Taylor Report era, when outdated, unsafe grounds nearly killed the game domestically. Infrastructure isn't glamorous, but it's existential.

Match-fixing isn't just illegal, it's commercially damaging. The 2006 scandal relegated Juventus and exposed systemic rot across Italian football. Fans lost faith, sponsors fled, broadcasters walked. Trust, once broken, takes decades to rebuild.

Governance insight: Integrity isn't a "nice-to-have". Financial crime and corruption don't just break rules; they break business models.

When Telepiù and Stream imploded in the early 2000s, they took Serie A's revenue model with them. Over-reliance on a single income stream is never smart, but it's especially dangerous when that stream is controlled by external parties with their own financial fragilities.

Italy's stagnant economy, ageing population, and declining youth interest created a perfect storm. You can't build a growth business in a shrinking market, especially when your entire commercial model depends on domestic corporate investment.

Now, before the PL diehards come for me, the Premier League has done loads right. Collective TV rights negotiations, global marketing infrastructure, and institutional governance that Serie A could only dream of in the '90s. But let's not kid ourselves: there are warning signs.

Over half of Premier League clubs operate at a loss, according to Deloitte. They're funding the gap through owner loans or creative accounting. Amortisation gymnastics, PSR breaches, points deductions, these aren't isolated incidents. They're symptoms of a system under strain.

Governance perspective: When compliance becomes about gaming the rules rather than sustainable business practice, you're in dangerous territory.

Profit and Sustainability Rules were designed to ensure prudence. Instead, they're driving behaviour that looks suspiciously like Italy's early-2000s "plusvalenze" culture, inflated player valuations, creative swap deals, accounting tricks that prioritise regulatory optics over genuine financial health.

Historical parallel: MLB's luxury tax system initially aimed to create competitive balance but ultimately entrenched inequality and encouraged creative compliance. Sound familiar?

Matchday revenue is tapped out for most clubs. You can't keep jacking up ticket prices without alienating your core fanbase (just ask Arsenal season ticket holders). Meanwhile, international broadcast rights are plateauing, and domestic deals have likely peaked. Yet wage expectations keep climbing.

Commercial reality: When your revenue sources plateau but your cost base keeps growing, you’re looking at a countdown timer.

Rights are now split across Sky, TNT, Amazon, and potentially others. More platforms mean more complexity, potential subscriber fatigue and crucially, less stability.

Opaque ownership structures, related-party transaction scrutiny, questions around financial crime controls at certain clubs. These issues are bubbling up more frequently. The incoming Independent Football Regulator is a tacit admission that self-governance has failed in key areas.

From someone who works in financial crime advisory: Once regulators get involved, it's because the industry didn't sort itself out. That external intervention always comes with compliance costs, reputational damage, and operational constraints.

Here's the uncomfortable truth: the Premier League's empire is built on broadcast liquidity. When that liquidity slows, not if but when, clubs will need three things:

Right now? Most clubs have one, maybe two, of these. That's not enough.

If you're building a career in sports business whether that's on the brand side, in media rights, at a club, or advising stakeholders understanding these structural risks can be commercial intelligence.

For advisors and consultants: Clubs will increasingly need expertise in governance infrastructure, not just deal-making. The sophisticated ones already know this.

For media and tech people: The fragmentation of rights is creating opportunities, but also instability. Build with flexibility in mind.

For aspiring board members (hi, that's me in 3–4 years): Clubs are going to need independent voices who understand governance, financial crime risk, and sustainable commercial growth. The boards that embrace this early will outperform. The ones that don't will become bad press for the league.

For everyone else: The next five years will determine whether the Premier League reforms, embracing cost controls and collective growth or declines like Serie A did. And that outcome will reshape careers, opportunities, and the entire football business ecosystem.

Look, I'm an optimist. I genuinely believe football can fix this. But optimism without governance discipline is just wishful thinking. And I've spent enough time advising on financial crime and commercial strategy to know: the warning signs are there. Whether we act on them is up to us.

Stay sharp out there.

Got thoughts? Strong opinions? Think I'm completely wrong? Let's discuss this is exactly the kind of conversation the industry needs to be having.